The land slide victory of BJP (303 seats) and shock losses suffered by INC (Indian National Congress) and many regional parties have been analysed by many in the press and TV debates. INC didn't win even 10% of the seats - with a tally of 52 seats it's leader doesn't qualify as the LOP (Leader of the Opposition Party) in the Parliament.
A cold analysis of data reveals a stark correlation expected due to religious polarisation. No amount of posturing by INC; temple hopping by Rahul Gandhi could enable it to outperform BJP as a pro-Hindu party. There is no great theory needed to explain the outcomes in different States; population data by religion is not available by parliamentary constituencies otherwise the hypothesis would be easier to validate.
There could be other reasons but probably they played a much smaller role - Balakot strike (pseudo nationalism) certainly seems to have helped according to most reporters. There are various pro-poor schemes which BJP claims have helped it to increase its vote share - Ujjwala Yojna (70 million LPG cooking gas cylinders allotment to poor families with initial fixed subsidy), Swachh Bharat Mission (96 Million toilets built and 565K out of 640K villages declared ODF - Open Defecation Free), Mudra Loan scheme (40 millions sanctioned loans aggregating to 2.5 Lac Crores - 2.5 trillion rupees), PM Sahaj Bijli Ghar Yojna (24.4 million households energised out of targeted 24.8 million HHs).
The detailed worksheet of state wise results (542 seats as one seat's election was cancelled by the Election Commission due to discovery of cash), seats contested, strike rate and correlation with Hindu and non-Hindu populations can be found here:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1IHQz3zlEF3vyuf_I8D_7FKU2R5xp1y0R
The argument that it was a vote for pro-incumbency which means for good governance is really vain. How come good governance was not experienced by the electorate in non-Hindu dominated regions?
It is clear that BJP increased its vote share from 31% in 2014 elections to 37.4% in 2019 elections mostly among Hindu voters. It is claimed that BJP increased its votes from among non-Hindu voters too. Actually it remained unchanged - only about 8% on non-Hindus are claimed to have voted for BJP - this is reported in press articles (one is hyperlinked below) - we don't have the data to prove this percentage in the worksheet.
References:
EC website shows seats won constituency wise:
The party wise State wise seats contested and seats won data can be found here besides much other data of election expenses, issues and manifestos:
Hindu share of population state wise from 2011 census:
https://www.census2011.co.in/data/religion/1-hinduism.html
Wire story - why Sikhs turned against BJP and favoured Congress
Another article by Venu Gopal highlights, the Election was not about economy (good governance):
LiveMint's analysis through ten charts:
Another LiveMint Article based on a CSDS survey - BJP's support base among Muslims remained unchanged @8%
Here are some interesting facts about the Indian electorate and 2019 elections:
Looking ahead: Congress will need to figure out how to win back the support of Hindus and show why India's progress cannot be helped by Hindu Supremacists! Hopefully, while BJP rules, it will also change and become more inclusive - at least to the extent it overtly claims: SAB KA SAATH SAB KA VIKAS AND VISHWAS! If one or both of these changes don't happen, India could be headed towards becoming Ram Rajya - a "Hindu Rashtra". A mirror image of Pakistan. That will be an India that lacks scientific temper - a medieval India. India that will build biggest temples and statues instead of spending resources on the education and health of it's citizens.
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