Wednesday, December 13, 2023

EVM voting & ECI processes - program, data and counting - current vulnerabilities, remedies and action required by INDIA

 

Synopsis: It is said in a Democracy people get the Government they deserve; but what if the Election System - the machines or the processes - are deficient? Then the Government ought to fix it or else the people should agitate to fix the deficiencies. Recent disclosures - as documented by independent journalists and pointed out by activists - show the Electronic Voting Machines (EVM), voting and counting processes in use in India can be manipulated (are hackable). Denying audit challenges is not consistent with democratic norms nor the Constitution of India. The Government, Election Commission of India (ECI) and Courts should accept the citizens' right to know and even provide the means to the contestants to make feasible verifications and allow them to mount audit challenges. The authorities should publish a fair process to allow and resolve contestants' audit challenges. What can be the means and processes for enabling audit challenge which will deter frauds that thwart our democracy?   


In the context of Electronic Voting Machines (EVM), how democracy is subverted, or can be subverted, is a question much debated. Concerned citizens have been agitating in India and have met with only limited success - especially now, since all pillars of the Indian democracy seem to be failing in unison.

Election Commission of India (ECI) is a constitutional body supposedly independent of the GOI. However, in reality, a whole lot of processes related with the use of Electronic Voting Machines reveal that GOI is in charge where ECI ought to be in charge. Under the bogey of secrecy for reasons of national security or abdication of judiciary to rule in its domain by calling it the domain of the executive, the democratic processes have been imperiled and even subverted.

People who have little understanding of Information Technology and Digital Security are in charge of designing policies and processes and even SCI has ruled in a way to curtail citizens rights to access programs that ought to be "open source" under the garb of "sensitive", "Intellectual Property" and "Executive Domain". After observing strange coincidences (statistical improbabilities), unexpected electoral results (outside the forecast of all pollsters) and documented anomalies (see articles below in RELATED section), this note references the on-going agitations for fair elections and prescribes what ought to be additional and very important concerns of Indian citizens and actions required for deterring electoral frauds in the future.


PETITION FILED TO ECI to conduct FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS - Citizens campaign, started a few months ago, by concerned citizens - Petition started on 24-Aug-23 by Prof. MG Devasahayam


ADR's recommendations for Electoral Reforms, Political Reforms and Rules for ECI: PDF file from ADRINDIA.org

The above petition and recommendations miss out some of the important issues arising from the points raised in the article of 10-Nov-23 in The Wire by Meetu Jain.

Most importantly, there are three points of hacking that need to be safeguarded against for preventing subversion of the voting and counting process -
i) EVM program hack,
ii) EVM results hack and
iii) results counting by ECI hack.

>>INDIA parties should ask for the following five things in the petitions to ECI and SCI; these steps for transparency are meant to deter voting frauds without forcing withdrawal of EVM or change in any methodology ECI follows in their deployment:

1) Source code of EVM must be shared with public - (this will have to go into a review petition as SCI has already ruled against revealing the source code even to ECI for audit),

2) "Audit Challenge" to discover fraud through any EVM must be resolved through a published process that should include comparing source code of suspect EVM with master copy - can be done by Political Parties/independent auditor,

3) At the Start of voting and after close of voting, the program AND results from each EVM should be allowed to be saved in an external storage by each contestant party for fulfilling the option of an "audit challenge" - each record in the votes cast data file will contain EVM ID, date time stamp, ID of candidate voted for; voter id is not available (so secret ballot is honoured - no one can find out who voted for whom); if there is an "audit challenge" then ECI's database from which results were announced will have to be compared with records saved in external devices submitted by the challenger political party/parties; If ECI aggregates the results filed (entered online manually) by the ECI's Returning Officer (RO) at each constituency, then the audit challenge will involve comparison of the EVM wise Candidate wise counts filed by the RO i.e. the figures from each of the EVMs the RO took into account (see the ECI's counting process note here: link). It should be noted that the data copied from memory stick has only the candidate ID and NOT the name of the candidate; as ECI does not want the results to be known until all voting is completed, in multi-phase and bunched multi-State elections, the password to the list of Candidate ID + Names will be released by the ECI when it wants - i.e. after voting is over; the encrypted list of Candidate names & their IDs will be downloadable from ECI portal by authorized Party representatives and Independent candidates right at start of elections.

4) ECI must have control over randomized distribution of EVMs at State and Constituency levels,
 
5) Sample checking at random of 5% to 30% should always be done of results counted through EVMs and manually of VVPATs.

[For meeting the requirements in point# 2 (detection of program hack) & 3 (detection of "data of EVM results" AND "results transmission & counting by ECI" hacks) EVM could provide a removable memory stick (flash memory card) which can easily hold the copy of the program AND results stored in the internal memory of EVM. Memory sticks have capacities ranging from 1 GB to 1 TB and more. EVM will have to be provided two buttons - "Start" and "End" - when these buttons are pressed, BOTH - the program and results data will be copied into the memory stick - further, only after the Start button is pressed, voting can commence and after the End button is pressed, voting will cease - i.e. the EVM will not be usable for any further voting until it is initialised for next round of election through the existing ECI processes. Using the removable memory stick, the ECI's booth officer and contestants' representatives will be allowed to copy the program + data into their own phones or computers - twice - at the time of Start event and also at the End event]

If these requests (#1 to #4) are denied, all Opposition parties should resist the use of EVMs henceforth and INDIA parties could use Point#5 - for negotiating 100% of VVPAT counting AND for the printed slip to be physically picked up by the voter and for the voter to push it into the box of votes for counting - ONLY the physical count would be treated as the final result - not the EVM memory results (in case they differ). See the hack video in the Notes below on Challenges to EVM and reaction of authorities (presently 5% VVPAT vs EVM counting comparison per constituency has been allowed - this is pointless in view of the hack of EVM + VVPAT actually demonstrated).



Most disconcerting facts and revelations uncovered by the staff of The Wire and reported in the article (verbatim extracts):

(1) In September, the Supreme Court refused to entertain a public interest litigation that asked for an audit of the source code of the Election Commission’s electronic voting machines (EVMs) by an independent agency. While dismissing the case, the court said “there is no material on record to indicate the Election Commission is not fulfilling its mandate.” 

(2) The TEC in fact recommended again and again that the veil of secrecy surrounding source codes should be lifted. In 2013, the TEC said that a facility be provided so the “code in the EVM units can be read out by an approved external unit and the code so read may be compared with corresponding reference code to show that code is same as that in the reference units. The scope of comparision is only to ensure that there is no trojan or other malware for EVMs in use.” 
This report of 2013 was the last the government shared with activist Venkatesh Nayak via RTI. No report has been made public post 2013. 

(3) India’s disproportionate secrecy is in marked contrast to other countries still using electronic voting devices. 

(4) Emails and phone calls to officials of the ECI and spokesperson elicited no response. However, government officials told The Wire, “There is no reason why the source code information should be shared. People have gone to the Supreme Court again and again on this matter and their efforts have been rebuffed. The Election Commission has answered the court each time. These are nothing but motivated questions.” 
Former CEC, Ashok Lavasa, says, “There have been a number of discussions on making source code public though the ECI goes by what the TEC says. The ECI prefers to be guided by academics like those at the TEC and go with their wisdom.” 

(5) In an RTI response to Venkatesh Nayak, BEL admitted that the chip they are using is from US-based NXP semiconductors. In addition, the NXP website says, this is not OTP. Instead, it has three different kinds of memory – SRAM, FLASH AND EEPROM. All three types can erase and rewrite data, or retain data bits in its memory or the memory can be electronically erased and rewritten. In other words, software that can be overwritten or reprogrammed cannot have the safeguards of being one time programmed. 

In a paper on EVMs in 2010, a committee including Michigan University professor Alex J. Halderman had this to say with reference to expert committee members picked for EVMs: “This time the committee members were A.K. Agarwala and D.T. Shahani, with P.V. Indiresan serving as chair. All three were affiliated with IIT Delhi, but, like the first committee, none appear to have had prior computer security expertise. Again, the committee members did not have access to EVM source code and relied on presentations, demonstrations, and site visits with the manufacturers. 

“In their report, the ECI has reiterated its view that the machines were “tamper-proof”. 
In fact, Professor Indiresan is reported to have once said that questioning the ECI’s integrity is like asking Sita to undergo trial by fire.


Observations on the above facts and revelations:

(1) Judgment of SCI is beyond ridiculous - judiciary needs education on the concept of "Open Source" (ironically CJI, DY Chandrachud is a votary of "Open Source" technologies - having introduced a number of open source ICT based innnovations he only needs to be reminded of the benefits of Open Source in a voting system which is plainly a public service system); citizens right to know that fair processes are in place for elections is non-trivial; knowledge of source code cannot compromise national security; policy of executive is violative of citizens right to information; finally the alibi of IPR in not sharing the source code is a big joke - the program for EVM is one a junior programmer can write - even an elevator operations program will be more complex in comparison! 

(2) TEC report of 2013 is absolutely correct - made by competent people of integrity

(3) India can learn from USA, Australia and many other countries before claiming to be mother of democracy - the article cites many examples

(4) ECI boss needs to show some spine, it is doable - s/he can take inspiration from late T.N. Seshan

(5) These so called ECI's tech experts claiming the EVMs are tamper proof and that ECI cannot be questioned - are at best digital illiterates or worse - individuals of compromised integrity - like Sita, they must be subjected to undergo trial by fire!

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RELATED

Challenges to EVM and reaction of authorities: Notes
(See the link in the notes to the most ingenious hack - 4pm New Network - viral video)

See in this 5 min video the striking pattern of BJP wins whenever the counting happened after a delay of a week or more of polling; BJP lost more seats whenever the counting happened soon after polling..

Ds4 News clipping of 5M:53S

8-Dec-23 INC TV Chhatisgarh voting % changed by ECI after having announced the voting percentage two days earlier and confirming that EVMs were sealed and placed in a strong room. ADR representative has pointed this out. Reply from ECI? Tweet


Citizens’ Commission on Elections’ Report on EVMs and VVPAT - Report of 11 pages of 8-Apr-21 - recently signed by 6,500 eminent people Report



12-Dec-23 The Wire - Meetu Jain's article on the bill GOI intends to pass that will replace CJI by a Minister of PM's choice in the Committee that appoints CEC and ECs - making ECI totally subservient to the Government: Link

Electoral Reforms India urgently needs - Anil Srivastava's blog:  Link



Thursday, August 3, 2023

Myth of Muslims overtaking Hindus in India - evidence of relative population growths should dispel the contrived fright of many Hindus

 Synopsis:

Worldwide experience and data shows that TFR (Total Fertility Rate - average number of children born per woman of child bearing age) declines with economic well-being and a certain minimum level of "awareness" (children are not "God's gift" - rather the result of unprotected copulation). TFR should be used to project the popluation growth / decline of a group and NOT religion or practices of polygamy etc. followed by its people. The TFR of Muslims in India is higher than that of Hindus today, however, it is declining faster than that of Hindus as the poorer Muslim group is lifted out of poverty. If policies that impinge on economic well-being of groups are non-discriminatory then it is safe to assume that before long, the TFRs of Hindus and Mulims will level up - there is nothing to show that in future, Hindus' TFR will be lower than that of Muslims. Evidence: The Muslim country - UAE's TFR today is 1.5 (lower than 1.6 which is the TFR of few "well-off" States of India - TN, AP, HP, J&K - before the State was broken up) and Yemen's TFR of 3.8 is close to Bihar's TFR, the poorest State - which has TFR of 3.7).  In all likelihood the share of Muslims population in India will peak at 18% and then stay level; in 1951 this share was 10% - it increased due to greater poverty of the Muslims group - not because of religious practices, or some conspiracy; Past Muslim immigrants contributed marginally to the risen share (legal or illegal immigrants "claimed to be" between 4 million and 20 million is about 0.4% to 2% of India's population). [The latest TFR figures for Indian States are lower than quoted above - which are presented for comparison, for e.g. Bihar's TFR has fallen to 3]. 

There are lot of misconceptions people have on the subject of "population explosion" and "Hindu vs Muslim Population growth". This is due to both misinformation and disinformation. The world is changing too fast for many people. Most people are not up to speed with latest data and research, it is inevitable they reach wrong conclusions due to obsolete understanding or worldview they carry in their head (misinformation) or due to agenda driven propaganda (disinformation).

Then there are ignorant (or daft) people who cannot understand that numbers of men and women are nearly always equal and that children are born to women and not men, therefore, population growth should be projected based on average number of children born per woman and not on how many average children a subset of polygamous men has fathered.
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Modi-Shah and Sangh Parivar have run a successful (brain-washing) campaign to frighten Hindus that Muslims will soon overrun them in India and the Muslims are working through a love jihad conspiracy to establish a Muslim Caliphate to rule the world. Most Bhakts have closed their minds to evidence and they are convinced that official statistics are wrong or the data is twisted to hide the rising population of Muslims. These folks believe that in India the proportion of Muslim population has risen manifold since independence (actually the Muslim population proportion has increased from 10% in 1951 - first census - to ~14.2% in 2011 - last census - https://shorturl.at/bwANS ) and now the Muslims are reproducing like rabbits who typically have 5 wives and 25 kids ("ham panch hamare pachhees" - this was Modi's jibe at Muslims in 2002 when he asked rhetorically why should Government provide relief to Muslim rehabilitation camps set up after the communal riots) or they are converting Hindu girls through love jihad or they are infiltrating through borders (Amit Shah called them "termites" that are in need of extermination).  All these beliefs are reinforced through a tsunami of propaganda and fake videos and narratives on social media. As a result even educated Hindus refuse to see the evidence to the contrary.
 
 
First lets understand there is no population explosion any longer in ALMOST ALL REGIONS OF THE WORLD. After we have understood the underlying reasons for the phenomenon of population explosion that occurred only in the last couple centuries, we will examine the question of population growth of different groups within a region - groups defined by income levels and groups defined by religion or culture.
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The misinformation of population explosion can be quickly dispelled by watching three video clips of late Dr. Hans Rosling in this note (please go through this note and the short video clips before reading further) :
Dr. Rosling was one the world's top presenters (if you like what he says, buy his book - Factfulness).
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Now lets turn our attention to India and the differences between the factors that determine the population growth of Hindus and Muslims. Here one has to get over a lot of disinformation.
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In 1951 the total population of India was 361 Million and in 2020 it grew to 1,380 Million.
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As Muslims population grew 485% vs Hindus 259% between 1951 and 2020, many people and most of right wingers, led by BJP and RSS leaders, ask  isn't it obvious, "Muslims will overrun Hindus?"
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In 1951, of the total population, Muslims constituted 10% and Hindus 84%. In 2020 the Muslims share was estimated to have risen to 15% and Hindus share fell to 79%. So can't we extrapolate the past trend and conclude that eventually Muslims will be majority and Hindus a minority?
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Population projections should not be made without looking at the underlying factors.
Population growth of a community (or a group) is a function of multiple factors
  • Total Fertility Rate (TFR),
  • Longevity (infant mortality affects this)
  • Migration  i.e. immigration (entering) and emigration (leaving)
  • Conversion (changing over from one group to another).
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If between two groups, Longevity, Migration and Conversion remain similar or vary marginally, then the population growth difference between the two groups can be accounted by differences in TFR ONLY. Lets look at the last three factors first, before we turn our attention to TFR of Hindus and Muslims.
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LONGEVITY, MIGRATION and CONVERSION
In India, the longevity and migration differences between Hindus and Muslims can be assumed to be negligible - whatever migration happened in the past has been accounted in the census. There were claims of 4 to 20 million illegal migrants from Bangladesh - recent surveys revealed less than 2 million (i.e. less than 0.2% of India's population); going forward the numbers of Muslims trying to illegally enter Bangladesh exceeds the number in the reverse direction! References at : The story of Muslim settlers from across the border;  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_immigration_to_India No one has reported any authoritative data of increasing migration of Muslims or increasing longevity of Muslims which is greater than Hindus - so these factors cease to have any influence on future population projections. However, about the figures of continuing conversion, into or out of the two religions, there are lot of controversies but little data. There is one survey conducted by PEW Research in 2020 and it concludes that there is negligible conversion, if at all; there is a net gain of people converting into Hinduism (0.8% addition and 0.7% reduction of Hindu population due to religious conversions). [The relevant portions of the report are copied below (so you may skip reading the full 2020 Pew Research Center Survey or go through it later).]
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In a 2020 Pew Research Center survey of nearly 30,000 adults across India, very few indicated they had switched religions since childhood. Among adults who say they were raised as Hindus, 99% still identify as Hindu. Fully 97% of those raised as Muslims are still Muslims in adulthood. And among Indians who were raised as Christians, 94% are still Christians. Moreover, those who do switch religions tend to cancel each other out; among all Indian adults, for example, 0.7% were raised Hindu but do not currently identify as such, while 0.8% were raised outside of the religion but are now Hindu.
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Interfaith marriage also is rare, and widely frowned upon. In the same survey, 99% of married Hindus, 98% of married Muslims and 95% of married Christians say they have a spouse of the same faith. Similar shares of Hindus and Muslims, as well as 92% of Christians, say their spouse was also raised in their current religion. Furthermore, 82% of Indians say that it is at least somewhat important to prevent women in their community from marrying someone of another religion, and 81% said the same for men, including about two-thirds who say each is very important.
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POLYGAMY is NOT a relevant factor for projecting population growth - this is misinformation.
Many people erroneously believe that communities that permit multiple wives (polygamy) grow faster. Most people have a patriarchal view in their head, therefore, they imagine a family led by a male and count the family members while calculating population growth. In a matriarchal view, a person would imagine a woman head and ask the question how many family members exist per family of the woman. In fact what matters is the number of children born per woman and the total number of women in the community; it doesn't matter whether the woman is married to 1 or 0.5 or  0.01 men (matriarchal view) or  1 man with one wife, one man with two wives or one man with 100 wives (patriarchal view) - BOTH ARE SAME. Generally in all communities, there are equal number of males and females. So if few males take many wives, there will be many males without wives at any point of time. This does not in any way alter the fact that the population will only grow depending upon the average number of children born per woman x total number of women. Since the ratio of men and women is likely same across all religions, what really matters is the TFR difference between the religions. See the link below about Ziona family picture - 39 wives or 1/39 Husband?
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TOTAL FERTILITY RATE
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TFR is the average number of children born per woman of child bearing age. TFR of 2.1 IN A GROUP is considered replacement level, i.e. the population remains steady (additions equal deaths) - Experts agree that today, TFR higher than 2.1 would result in population increasing over time and lower than 2.1 would result in population declining over time.
According to UN, India's TFR has been steadily reducing and it has now touched 2.1. For Hindus and Muslims in India, the migration and conversion are negligible, the differences in longevity are also negligible, therefore, future population growth of Hindus and Muslims will be determined by their respective TFRs over time.
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TFR Religion wise in Table 4.2 Page#124 of Vol I
Hindu TFR = 1.94; Muslim TFR (highest) = 2.36; Jain TFR (lowest) = 1.60



State and UT wise TFR Table 4.3 page#125 of Volume I
Muslims high proportion States J&K TFR = 1.41; Kerala TFR = 1.79; WB TFR = 1.64
Hindu high proportion States UP TFR = 2.35; Bihar TFR = 2.98
Per capita income rather than religion would explain the above differences in TFR






The FUTURE: As per the TOI article from which above population figures for India are quoted, India's  population is likely to peak at 1.6 Billion in 2045-50; Muslims share will peak at 18% and Hindus will still be the majority at 77%.
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So it is a myth that Muslims will overrun Hindus in India - this will never happen. Though the TFR of Hindus is slightly lower than that of Muslims at present, the rate of decline of Muslim's TFR is higher than that of Hindus. Therefore, the two TFRs will level up or it is possible that Muslims TFR may decline below that of Hindus.
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TOI article of 10-Jun-22 written by Rohan Rohit, Editor of TOI and ET is included in the following note (the excellent article explains the methodologies used for projection and it is worth a read). Also included are State wise TFR figures and Hindu Muslim Population shares as per 2011 Census. The 2021 Census was not conducted due to pandemic.
 
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The above are just two of viral WhatsApp messages tsunami in India that is created and sustained by the digital army of BJP.
 
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Scroll down to the  amazing Ziona family picture in this note:
 
 
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TFR in MENA & N. AFRICA regions has already declined to about the replacement level.

UAE is an affluent Muslim country - its TFR (in 2021) is down to 1.5! Yemen is a poor Muslim country - its TFR (in 2021) is 3.8.
 
 
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BEST & WORST NEWS:
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World will be a better place without religion. Therefore, it is worth noting that the importance of religion and religiosity is declining rapidly with enlightenment. The fastest growing group in the world today, after "Islamists" (followers of Islam) is that of atheists and the irreligious - i.e. unaffiliated people. It is certain that with reducing poverty in the "Islamists" group, their TFR will decline and then the highest rate of growth will be that of "unaffiliated group" and it is this group which will be the dominant one before the end of 21st Century. Bad news is that before that happens, the human race could suffer a cataclysmic catastrophe if it does not learn to avoid a nuclear war or if it continues to degrade the environment and crosses the tipping point beyond which climate change becomes unmanageable: Read about the doomsday clock at the link below in RELATED articles. RATHER THAN WORRY ABOUT ISLAMISTS TAKING OVER THE WORLD WE SHOULD BE WORRIED ABOUT SAVING ORGANISED HUMANITY WHICH IS FACING AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT!
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Unaffiliated group is likely to become the fastest growing one after the Islamists in poor countries are lifted above the abject poverty line.
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Twenty most atheist countries of world (%'s vary from 27% to 52% - economically well off tend to become atheists):  Source (26-Apr-23): https://shorturl.at/hyEO1
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RELATED
 
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======  DOOMSDAY CLOCK   =======
Humans worst instincts are overtaking the world:
There are more important existential issues than Hindu - Muslim population growths. Today is the most dangerous moment in history - 90 seconds to midnight on the doomsday clock of atomic scientists reminds us of the danger.
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