Friday, February 2, 2018

Leveraging digital infrastructure - making schemes deliver desired outcomes

Nandan Nilekani praises 2018 budget for leveraging the digital infrastructure. He could have faulted the government on many policies which can be modified now that identifying and targeting beneficiaries is possible, but the same are being continued or will be continued mindlessly.


Here are a few schemes that can be improved with the help of sophisticated systems designed to  leverage the digital infrastructure available today.

  1. Crop insurance – farmers and fields can be identified by using Aadhaar and GIS (satellite imagery – Geographical Information System); in case of crop failure, right compensation and timely disbursement can be made directly into the farmer’s account. The system will eliminate duplicate and ghost claims which have thwarted the crop insurance schemes leading to large scale farmers’ suicides across India. The cost – benefit of such a “sophisticated” system will be far better than loan waivers (last year Modi Government made loan waivers in excess of Rs.74K Crores; Rs. 34K Crores in UP alone). This system will be far more efficient than any insurance company’s systems and processes –the scheme can be implemented without bringing any insurance company in the loop!
  2. Healthcare provision of Rs.5 lac per family – there is no need of bringing insurance companies in the loop. Using Aadhaar, families can be defined with non-duplicate members and direct cash transfer effected to empanelled (healthcare) service providers upon submission of their bills; the bills approval processes may be outsourced to insurance companies claims departments (efficient BPOs will come up and compete for claims processing). Big data analytics can reward efficient healthcare providers by directing more patients to them.
  3. Free power to farmers should be stopped. Instead, DBT (Direct Benefits Transfer) based on scientific assessment can be made into farmer’s account. This will lead to avoidance of excessive water usage which is bad for the soil productivity and worse for the ecology (rapidly depleting water table).
  4. Every child, using Aadhaar can be granted DBT for school fees – s/he can go to any empanelled school and receive credit for predetermined amount towards the fees. This will encourage competition among schools for higher quality education as the students will exercise choice.
  5. Every individual entitled to low cost ration through the PDS should be free to buy the ration from any empanelled shop; the “sophisticated” system will make the payment to the shop to the extent of entitlement of the buyer. Shops will compete to provide better quality and low cost rations to customers as they will exercise choice; corrupt PDS shops will mend their ways very quickly.


One can think of many more examples of leveraging digital infrastructure and smart applications for disintermediation and creation of efficient and merit based ecosystem. In India we have enough talent to design and develop such systems.

Monday, January 15, 2018

The Aadhaar challenge and real issues - should we stop using computers if they are misused?


When computers were sought to be introduced in the banking and insurance sectors in India in 70s, the trade unions were spooked and they stalled computerisation on the specious ground that labour was cheap in India. This wisdom combined with protectionism resulted in imposition of 500% custom duty on electronics items and computers which continued until Rajiv Gandhi brought it down sharply. This spell of stupidity set India's development of indigenous electronics and computer software back by at least two decades. Argumentative Indians have strong opinions which is a virtue when backed with independent study - unfortunately most folks are lazy, they would rather argue and learn instead of learn and argue. Aadhaar is a terrific and elegant tool which should be replicated across the world, but due to inept politicians, poor legislation on data protection and privacy of data, argumentative Indians have enough "scoring points" to derail the project unless the Judiciary rises to the occasion.

Supreme Court is going to start hearing the petitions against the Aadhaar system from 17-Jan-2018. UIDAI (Unique Identification Authority of India) manages Aadhaar subject to the Aadhaar Act (published 16th March 2016: https://goo.gl/r77j8S). Individual’s right to privacy was settled in a landmark judgment by the Supreme Court of India (https://goo.gl/tGTwtV); a nine-judge bench unanimously ruled that the right to privacy was a fundamental right to be guaranteed under Article 21 of the Constitution of India – the right to privacy could be equated with the right to life and liberty. Now a five-judge bench will rule on the constitutional validity of Aadhaar being challenged by petitioners and objectors who fear that Aadhaar will be used (misused) as a tool for surveillance and it will exclude many from delivery of services, if it is made mandatory, due to constraints of its technology or Government’s reach.

Aadhaar identity system beats ALL other countries' systems in terms of its size & breadth, having registered over one billion Indian residents across all age groups and demographics, and its sophistication which enables identity authentication online in seconds. It is also an extremely lean system as it stores the minimum data that is essential for identification - it contains nothing extra. Unfortunately it is also a system that is grossly misunderstood which is only one reason it has raised the hackles of many; the second reason is the absence of data protection and privacy laws in India which heighten the risks consequent to linking of the permanent Aadhaar number with other databases in which an individual's information is available; unscrupulous politicians can utilise the State machinery to profile individuals to harass them and suppress dissent. The second reason begs reforms and new legislation including amendments in the Aadhaar Act; the Aadhaar program itself by no means deserves rejection.

Aadhaar's potential of transforming India in double quick time is proved through enablement of Direct Benefits Transfer and elimination of duplicate or ghost identities – Government claims having made cost savings higher than Rs.50K crores with partial implementations in LPG and PDS (Public Distribution System) (https://goo.gl/JRhfMt). The leaky subsidy programs of Government cost over Rs.4 lac crores p.a. and conservative estimates of leakages that can be fixed through Aadhaar are +40% or cost savings of Rs.1.6 lac crores p.a.. Aadhaar helps in targeted delivery of benefits – it short-circuits corrupt and inefficient bureaucratic systems and processes. Additionally, there are enormous unquantifiable benefits: inducement to “honest behaviour”; full inclusion of correct beneficiaries who were excluded or who were being short-changed. For e.g. just about 20% of PAN cards out of the 250 million issued by the Income Tax Department so far, belong to active tax payers so there must be many duplicates and fakes among the balance 80% which Aadhaar can help in invalidating (https://goo.gl/qQAyxv).

Having a good id system like Aadhaar alone is not enough. Its implementation cannot be safe without a framework of sensible and strong data protection and privacy laws. Access to Aadhaar should be permitted only after (1) defining proper protocols for querying Aadhaar database for each “use case” consistent with the data protection framework and (2) seeding myriad databases like PAN, Bank Accounts, Mobile Nos., Passports, PF/Pension Accounts should not be mandated without first having rules of data sharing and linking. Linking with the intent of 360 degree profiling could well be the hope (or agenda) of some politicians in power. Aadhaar id system cannot be blamed for the recent bamboozling by Government and many service providers to force everyone to link Aadhaar number with their databases - linking certainly impacts privacy and it is likely to be found objectionable by the Courts. Aadhaar database (Central Identity Repository) does NOT store any of the linked database references – it is designed to hold ONLY 1) Identity information (comprising demographics and biometrics data of individuals) and 2) authentication request records for a certain period; duration being determined by the Government.

Identity information in the Aadhaar system is meant to be used solely for establishing identity of an individual. The individual has three important rights: 1) update his/her demographic identity data, subject to verification for certain fields against specified documentary proof, 2) view the Authentication request records at any time and 3) deactivate or activate identity data sharing or authentication function of Aadhaar. Authentication request record contains the identity of requesting entity, date and time the request was made and the system response (Yes/No – i.e. to confirm or deny the authenticity of data contained in the request); the purpose of the request is not known nor stored.

What are the minimum set of protocols that should be followed and made known to public?

Use Case#1 Identity Authentication request (this function has been disclosed on UIDAI’s website)

An Identity Authentication request (i.e. an online query to Aadhaar System submitted by a Requesting Entity) should be allowed to be made by anyone supplying the Aadhaar number and any one demographic data (Name, Address, Postal Code, Date of Birth, email, gender, telephone number) or any one biometric data (fingerprint scan or iris scan). The System would give the response as “Yes” or “No”. The UIDAI website confirms the current system works exactly like this (https://goo.gl/ugNmSp). Such Requesting Entities don’t need any logins. Example of this Use Case: A security guard on being shown your Aadhar Number and Name can submit such a request through a smart phone app and obtain the answer Yes/No on his mobile; another Use Case: security guard can submit your Aadhaar number and ask you to touch a fingerprint scanner and obtain a Yes/No answer. In future Aadhaar system may include facial data points set as one of the biometric identity information, however, in that case it may want the Authentication request to contain one more demographic data, for e.g. Aadhaar no. + Name + Face; this is because facial recognition based on low quality cameras is less reliable than fingerprint or iris scan (https://goo.gl/NqLWpg).

Use Case#2 KYC confirmation – like banks or insurance companies require (this function is not fully or explicitly disclosed on UIDAI’s website)

The authorised Requesting Entity’s request (i.e. an online query to Aadhaar System) should be allowed to be made only with Logins assigned by UIDAI or UIDAI’s designated senior officers. With such an “empowered” Login, the user will get the required demographic data for any Aadhaar number submitted to the Aadhaar system; demographic data may include some or all of these fields: name, photo, address, postal code, date of birth, gender, email and phone number. There should be a defined process and submission of adequate documentation duly signed, preferably digitally, before creation of such empowered Logins by authorised officers whose id must also be stored. There should be a life cycle record maintained of assignment or blocking of such Logins. Aadhaar system should block suspicious usage from such Logins, for e.g. a) above threshold speed of successive requests and the period over which continuous requests occur would thwart subversion through Bots (robots which may attempt to suck all available data), b) quick successive requests from IP addresses which are from regions far apart and c) simultaneous requests from the same Login - would help to block users who have illegally got hold of a Login. UIDAI’s website should describe this process otherwise it would be misleading Aadhaar registrants into believing that their demographics data is never shared with anyone; on going through the UIDAI website one may believe that identity data is used ONLY for the Use Case of “authentication” in which Aadhaar system responds merely with a “Yes” or “No” response.

Use Case#3 Linking Aadhaar with another service provider's database - like Bank or Mobile Phone TELCO or Insurance company etc.

The service provider must have an individual's consent who must visit the office of the service provider or the individual himself or herself must link own Aadhaar number through an online process by visiting the service provider's portal. In the former Use case, the individual can confirm his/her consent by inputting an OTP received from Aadhaar system or touching a finger print scanner or peering into an iris scanner as required by the linking application running on the computer of the service provider. In the latter Use Case, the individual can confirm his/her consent after following the same authentication process. The linking process would require the service provider to store both the Aadhaar number and the Authentication Request reference number to which Aadhaar System has responded "Yes". If just the Aadhaar number is stored, it would not assure that the same was authenticated AND its linking consented to by the individual. 

If such empowered logins (Use Case#2) are created without proper protocols, as mentioned in the above para, the misuse of the type seen in the episode reported by The Tribune of 3rd January, 2018 will happen: A rogue designated officer or his agent, by using the relevant program execution rights, created an empowered Login (of Use Case#2 type) for Rachna Khaira who had offered to pay all of Rs.500 online –with this login, she claimed that she could access the demographic data of any of the 1.2 billion Aadhaar numbers. The Tribune story exposed the vulnerability of the protocol in place at UIDAI which had claimed that Aadhaar's data cannot leak out. As a matter of fact Aadhaar Act allows parting of demographics data for authentication but NEVER the biometric data. Incidentally, demographic data of all voters is in public domain and it can even be downloaded for distribution (https://goo.gl/DsczTp). The Tribune story was sensationalised as a “leak of 1.2 billion Aadhaar identity records”; this created an impression that the entire Aadhaar database had been copied in an unscrupulous way in another storage media freely available for distribution. Actually, nothing of the sort could have happened because the Aadhaar system would have undoubtedly blocked, one can safely bet, any attempt to retrieve multiple records at a high speed from any specific Login (even an empowered one). UIDAI filed an FIR against Rachna Khaira and this action compounded the suspicion of a cover up of its alleged blunder which had resulted in the whole database getting leaked. If Aadhaar system is designed with a proper audit trail, which undoubtedly must be the case, UIDAI ought not to take longer than few minutes to identify the rogue (or careless) designated officer who created, or who enabled an agent to create, the empowered Login called Anamika_6677 for the pseudo name Anamika that the Tribune's journalist had adopted (read her "dramatic" story here: https://goo.gl/v5F2xJ).

CEO of UIDAI, Ajay Bhushan Pandey writing in Economic Times of 14th January, 2018 (https://goo.gl/Zb14rQ) reiterated the safety of Aadhaar database without shedding light on the protocols UIDAI follows in creating such (Use Case#2) empowered Logins and the traceability of creation of such Logins; one would also like to know how many such Logins have been handed out? There was a news story that 5,000 such Logins were handed out to State officials and another one that 1 lac such Logins were created for CSCs (Common Services Centres) for VLEs (Village Level Entrepreneurs) who provide services to rural residents. Empowered logins are also allowed to print anyone’s Aadhaar card. Many people mistakenly think that printing an Aadhaar card is a breach –actually the Aadhaar card has little intrinsic value – one can equally well print Aadhaar demographic identity info on plain paper and it would be as good an id proof as the original Aadhaar card; even an electronic image of Aadhaar on a smart phone (download the app: mAadhaar) should serve as an “Aadhaar Card”. Aadhaar system offers all these capabilities, however, to prevent misuse of authorised Use Case#2 Logins, there should be a proper protocol and auditability process which should be published on UIDAI website. Hopefully Aadhaar has built all of these processes and protocols and all it needs to do is publish them. In any case there is no fear, based on any available evidence, that Aadhaar database in whole, is at risk of getting leaked out; UIDAI's website says the biometric identity data is encrypted, using the highest available level encryption algorithms, before storing in the CIDR. [It is highly improbable that any hacker can get to its CIDR data. Vendors who use Aadhaar authentication services are authorized by the UIDAI as Authorized User Agencies (AUAs). Each AUA must use an Authorized Service Agency (ASA) — these are the only entities allowed to connect to the CIDR. However, any software developer can write an Aadhaar authentication application using UIDAI's API (Application Programming Interface) components - the direct access to CIDR is thus prevented in case of common users.]

On UIDAI website’s “print media” page, various news reports were chronologically listed – Tribune story was NOT mentioned (https://goo.gl/YWdixi ) – this betrays a timidity that I found uncharacteristic of UIDAI of the past; during Nandan Nilekani’s tenure there would have been full disclosure for sure.

What does Nandan Nilekani have to say about the Aadhaar and the FIR filed by UIDAI?

Nandan says Aadhaar is safe and it will pass the data privacy test which is expected to be defined by the Supreme Court. He said Aadhaar is being maligned through a sustained campaign (https://goo.gl/AiBMhu story of 15th January 2018). He complimented the proposed introduction of the “Virtual Id” facility. CEO of UIDAI had said in his above mentioned ET article of 14th January 2018, that this facility was debated nine years ago but was kept in abeyance.

Now that data privacy concerns are threatening the idea of Aadhaar, the “Virtual Id” facility will serve to address some people’s concerns. As the Virtual Id will be perishable (it has a finite life of few days defined by the user who can generate Virtual Ids any number of times) it will serve to authenticate one’s Id but it will prevent 360-degree profiling which can happen if the permanent Aadhaar number is provided to a service provider or an authority. For e.g. if Aadhaar number is stored in databases of PAN, Banks, Mobile service providers, Passport, PF or Pension Funds, National Crime Record Bureau's database etc. then someone duly authorised by any department of the Government or through a Court Order (and not from UIDAI – because it is not in its mandate) can pull all the records together and create a 360-degree view of an individual through processing of a query by the Aadhaar number. However, if Virtual Id (with its time stamp) is stored in all these databases then it is not possible to link the relevant records of an individual in different databases and form a 360-degree profile; this defeats the nefarious design of a “surveillance state” [same Virtual Id can get allotted to another person, after its expiry, however, at a given instant one Virtual Id will be mapped to only one Aadhaar]. The Virtual Id idea is good in theory, however, the Government is known to change its rules and it could well force individuals to supply their permanent Aadhaar number instead of a Virtual Id. Already there were news reports that Income Tax Department has been empowered to find addresses from “PAN linked Aadhaar numbers” and pursue “missing” tax payers whereas CEO of UDIAI said on 14th January 2018 that individuals need not supply permanent Aadhaar number to any authority including IT Department or Banks (https://goo.gl/gyY6tP).

PRESCRIPTIONS going forward:

1) Introducing Facial recognition as one of the biometrics along with one demographic attribute for authentication in the Aadhaar system is a good idea (https://goo.gl/wKbpRL ). It will serve to enhance inclusivity of Aadhaar – some people do not have fingerprints which can be scanned and matched easily.

2) India needs stronger data protection laws and enhanced respect for individual’s privacy. Aadhaar system properly implemented does not impinge on individual’s privacy. For e.g. the Aadhaar enrollment agents have been caught selling individual's data - these people should be jailed rather than fined. 

3) Investment in implementing Aadhaar is probably less than rupees 10K crores. It has paid back this investment many times over within couple of years. In future it can save lacs of crore rupees p.a. and it can increase the honesty coefficient of Indians in a very significant way which is priceless. It will help serve for the first time, many genuine beneficiaries who have been left out or who have been short-changed by the corrupt.

4) A well designed multi-media campaign (TV, Press, Radio, Cinema and Hoardings) is required to explain i) what Aadhar is and what it is NOT, ii) how and why to generate Virtual Id and iii) precautions the individual must take at the time of linking Aadhaar with a service provider's database [to ensure that the agency asking to link Aadhaar is so authorised by the Government and that the agent is running the right program for linking and it is not a facade behind which another operation is being performed (for e.g. if the agent has user's bank account number, he could transfer funds when you provide your OTP or get your finger print or iris scanned on his devices)].

5) Government must recognise the difference between the needs of "authentication" and "linking". The former serves to verify identity (when you supply a Virtual Id), the latter helps in profiling (when you link your permanent Aadhaar number). Government should MINIMISE the Aadhaar linking drive with the permanent Aadhaar number. Government should provide individuals the option of linking the temporary Virtual Id which will serve authentication requirement. Those who were coerced to link their permanent Aadhaar number should be allowed to substitute it with the Virtual Id (alternatively they should be allotted another Aadhaar number). These "needs" should be debated - I would recommend linking Election Card, Ration Card, PAN Card, Driving License, Land Purchase Registrations, Crime Records but not Banking Accounts or Mobile Numbers which should use Aadhaar only for authentication.

6) Modi Government was ill advised to pass Aadhaar bill as a money bill in Lok Sabha, presumably to save itself the blushes in Rajya Sabha. [Jai Ram Ramesh has filed a petition challenging introduction of Aadhaar as a money bill]. This indeed displays a lack of understanding, in Modi Government, of the utility of Aadhaar. Aadhaar is not just a tool for efficient targeted delivery of monetary benefits, it is also a security enhancing tool. For e.g. militants using fake identities will be deterred from operations in Kashmir if everyone in the State is forced to have an Aadhaar id. Ironically, Aadhaar Act excludes the State of J&K!! Aadhaar Act needs to be modified on both counts, to expand its scope and applicability across whole India. Even the name of the Act should be changed: From The Aadhaar (Targeted Delivery of Financial and other Subsidies, benefits and services) Act, 2016 to The Aadhaar (Unique Id System for Indian residents anywhere in the World).

Friday, October 20, 2017

Problem of matching people - talent with work opportunity - importance of a universal solution

People matching is one of the most exciting problems to solve. What can be more important to anyone than finding interesting work, or a job if one is unemployed, or a person with the right talent to do a task or shortlist for a job? Other subsets are matching benefactors and worthy causes or finding partners. Information & Communications Technology of today and a smart program can expand the search horizon manifold or find talent within a pool much more reliably and sensibly.

Automation and knowledge driven operations, changing life styles, rising aspirations and increasing mobility of people, apart from the enabling ICT are compelling motivators for building a smart people matching program and making it accessible for universal use. At Systems Dynamics, we have built such a program, that is TOTALLY INCLUSIVE (demographics agnostic) and SCALABLE. Called PEMS (People Expertise Matching System), it is configured and deployed for five models. Few use cases:

1.   Employee seeks interesting work opportunities within one’s organisation; Manager (or a co-worker) seeks the right talent (expert) to solve an urgent problem, work on a project or short assignment or fill a particular position.

2. Recruiter wants to hire candidate(s) to fill a new/vacant position.

3. Placement officer wants to place graduating students or find internships.

4. Empower Employment Facilitation Centres (EFC) to be located in Industrial Clusters where Work Seekers (WS) and Work Providers (WP) can walk in to register their profiles and requirements for receiving short-lists of matching opportunities or candidates.

5. Empower State or National level Employment Exchanges where WS and WP can register their profiles and requirements and expect to receive short-lists of matching opportunities or candidates (through SMS and email, as opted) and Government functionaries can obtain real time demand supply gap snapshots – region wise sector wise and receive data analytics that can inform their formulation of schemes, steer investments and resource to bridge the current and emerging gaps in the job market, upgrade skills, assist affirmative action groups or assist entrepreneurial ventures. In India today, ~ 1K Employment Exchanges (run by State Government’s Labour Departments) have ~ 40 million “unemployed WS” registrants but annually less than 1% get placed. With our solution, the successful placement rate can be easily quadrupled and registrants targeted to 400+ million “WS” within three years (“Work” is different from a “Job”). The social benefits are non-trivial enough, for justifying a national public sector project. Even a private venture could monetise some benefits and earn good ROI: The potential EVA (Economic Value Addition) could exceed 100 billion rupees p.a. (400 M WS registrants x 4% placement x average 6.5K monthly wage). The capital investment in empowering 1K employment exchanges and 100K Common Services Centres (existing in rural India), including training cost, will be less than 2 billion rupees! Operational cost will be mostly publicity and HelpDesk support. Low hanging fruit it is for Government or an Entrepreneur.

I will be happy to discuss the USP of PEMS (underlying system and method is patent pending) with people interested in evaluating its usage; or how to make PEMS universally accessible which is THE challenge – not if you happen to be Bill Gates or Larry Page or Anand Mahindra or Azim Premji ;) 
                                                                                                                                                    
                 

Note for Satya Nadella :)
LinkedIn has steadily improved in capturing human expertise and connecting people. Testimony is its growing popularity. However, it lacks the fine grained expertise mapping needed in today’s world to do automated matching. Enumerations in dynamic drop down lists, provided in current version of LinkedIn, do help the users escape the tyranny of “Key word matching” (as both WS and WP select from the same list) but more intelligence, greater precision and matching of attributes of preferences (other than expertise) are needed for sensible short-listing! It requires an ontology (parent-child relationship between expertise attributes) rather than linear drop down lists because the WS and WP may refer to skills in the same branch at different levels (for e.g.  SN’s project manager wants a developer in “.NET Framework” and the work seeker has mentioned her expertise as “LINQ” or let’s say, BG Foundation’s Manager wants to hire vaccination assistants and the work seeker has claimed experience in public health programs with a relevant healthcare certificate from National Council of Vocational Training).   


Note for Sundar Pichai ;)
Google’s mission is not just finding information on the web but information in the world! “People finding” is too alluring a problem to pass up for applying AI or Machine Learning which Google is brilliantly applying in its multiple products. But over here, this approach is NOT inclusive. In India 80% of workforce is not on web at all. Significant workers across the planet aren’t on the web. After Google and Google Earth it ought to be the turn of Google Mankind and not Google Web folks!


Sunday, June 11, 2017

How to rein in terrorists using modern ICT

The trick is to build and deploy "loudly", systems which are visible deterrents for terrorists acts. The system described here can be implemented in any country because the solution is scalable.

Every resident in the country, and even a visitor to the country, should have a record created in a "REFERRALS DATABASE". This database can have millions or billion records (so even China and India are not excluded).

Referrals are people who have vouched for the subject (resident or the visitor). Each referee should provide a confidence score of the subject's probability of being or becoming a potential terrorist.

Each subject would be given a label in the database through an algorithm which would analyse the scores given by the referees and the missing data of the subject. The label instances would be:

Safe (not a likely terrorist)
Suspect (could be radicalised and become a terrorist)
Tag (is radicalised and a potential terrorist or has vital missing data and therefore in need of tagging)

Those labeled as "Tag" should be tagged (using active RFID non-removable bracelets) and subjected to tight surveillance, including geo fencing. Such people should be allowed to move only in designated areas or routes, and any deviation should alert security forces and trigger an arrest.

Those labeled "Suspect" should be asked to refresh referrals scores periodically (every 6 months or 2 years or some interval in-between depending upon the country's budget and propensity to rein in terrorists).


1. First the RESIDENTS' database:

1.1 The identifier in each RESIDENT'S record should be biometrics linked. So the Aadhar id qualifies in India. If the id does not have biometrics already linked, the country must collect that data of the subject (all fingerprints at least, both iris images desirable).

1.2 The subject's attributes should include - name, date of birth, place of birth, mobile number and email id (which have been authenticated with the identifier, for e.g. these should be consistent with the same data provided in Aadhar database - I am not suggesting stealing, or borrowing, this data from Aadhar database). A person who does not have either a mobile or email should be marked to "Tag".

1.3 REFEREE's scores - there should be 3 to 10 sets and each set of data should include identifier of the referee and his/her score on a 0 to 100 scale - 0 would indicate the referee's full confidence that the subject is not a potential terrorist at all, and a score of 100 would indicate the subject is radicalised, and is a terrorist, or a sure potential terrorist. There should be three to ten referees' scores, who are NOT themselves "Tag" type, depending upon the country's propensity to rein in terrorists and the budget allocated for building this system. The referee ids and scores would be initially provided by the subject himself or herself. The system would then authenticate those by obtaining confirmations from each referee by any convenient method - SMS, email or online.

2. The VISITOR'S database:

2.1 The identifier in each VISITOR's record will be Passport + Country issuing the passport.

2.2 Same as the data in item 1.2

2.3 Same as the data in item 1.3

The algorithm that delivers the verdict, Safe, Suspect or Tag, would evaluate the average scores of confidence by assigning weights to referees.

The above system would utilise advanced machine learning and communications technologies. Referees would be sent SMS and asked to confirm the scores input by the subject on their behalf.

Referees would be held responsible for patently wrong scores. Under a new legislation, a subject caught in an act of terrorism and assigned a score of less than 10 by any referee would automatically result in arraignment of the referee. Such a policy will be a deterrent to referees giving liberal scores. It would also act as a deterrent to would be terrorists, to indulge in terrorist acts which would bring harm to their friends and relatives. A terrorist is not afraid to lose his/her life but what about his/her friends' and relatives' lives?

The cost of the above system could be dropped by excluding such people who are considered "Safe". However, the drawback is that such categorisation attempts could get politicised easily. A centralised database of profiles of past terrorists could be built and analysed to determine common characteristics and any resident with matching characteristics would be required to register on the above REFERRALS DATABASE. For e.g. {all muslims or all those who have visited certain countries} AND {who are above 18 years but less than 80 years of age} could be considered "not safe" and ordered to register with REFERRALS DATABASE.

Sunday, December 18, 2016

Demonetization - a bungle if not a scam and now, an opportunity being squandered

Few problematic questions:
Q1. Why did PM not get enough Rs.500 notes printed three to six months before November 8, 2016 Demonetization announcement and get all ATM's ready beforehand?
Q2. Why did he not order banks to become compliant with UPI and USSD or AEPS technologies three months earlier?
Q3. Why did he not (or does he not) launch a training campaign and mobilise all teachers (in schools and colleges) and even bank staff to learn and then teach others making digital transactions?

What was he aiming for, really?



It would appear that PM was driven by the urgency of dealing a coup de grace (surgical strike) to the opposition parties in U.P. elections and he couldn't care less for other consequences (like during 2002 riots). TOI's chief cartoonist captured the situation strikingly accurately (10-Dec-2016 Page 9 of TOI A'bad).



Demonetisation is estimated to have cost India Rs.1.25 to 1.5 lac crores. Additionally demonetization is costing lives. It has already cost many lives and the way things are panning out and the utter callousness of the government in not tweaking rules in favour of the helpless and the poor, many more will die in queues, hospitals or even homes without access to their own money!

Only a very powerful Prime Minister can commit such an expensive project without consulting experts or the cabinet. Apart from the human distress and hit on economy, the humongous monetary cost may well exceed the tax on "black money" expected to be recovered or extinguished until the amnesty scheme (PMJKY) runs out on 31st March 2017

 
Modi and team have no understanding of how large scale transformative systems (like Aadhar) are rolled out. For making India go from 98% cash transactions to even 50% digital (mobile) transactions, it would take much more than exhortations by PM or enthusiasm of Niti Ayog's Amitabh Kant (he declared lucky prizes to promote digital transactions). Migration from cash to mobile money transactions could easily be justified to be scaled up and formulated as an all-time biggest project. Instead Modi is squandering this opportunity of transforming India on an important dimension. Due to a ham handed campaign, and no training resources deployed, the available technology and resources remain grossly underutilised; sadly people prefer to queue up for cash when most of them could have switched to mobile (digital money) in less time! The  bank staff could have been deployed for opening bank accounts and teaching those in the queue to learn the use of UPI or USSD enabled mobile transactions - technology and infrastructure already exist to include both smart phone users (with Internet connectivity) and feature phone users (without Internet connectivity). Queues for cash would reduce dramatically. Constraints in going digital are not mobile coverage or transactions technology coverage. In India we have over 1 billion mobile users (may be 600 million unique subscribers - i.e. practically every household).

Constraints are

1) awareness ; training and
2) individual bank accounts (practically 99% of households have bank accounts) and linking them to Aadhar (particularly important for the less literate because biometrics security enabled transactions are desirable for them).

Modi and team have bungled on estimating the gains of demonetizing on the economic front. Almost all the demonetized currency is going to get back into banking system before expiry of the deadline. Modi and team are now expecting the tax base will expand. Millions of notices will be sent out to depositors to explain their income which the Income Tax officials will want to tax or confiscate! This will be the biggest opportunity for the I-T Department, one of the most corrupt departments of the government, of milking innocent (gullible) citizens who have been lured by the Modi team to deposit funds below Rs.2. lacs by telling them that no questions will be asked.

Many individuals and political parties can deposit cash they are holding in 500 and 1,000 rupee currency without inviting any questions - for e.g. all political donations - election funds collected by parties and agricultural income are tax exempt. No wonder folks declare agricultural income which is bogus or political parties collect fictitious donations below Rs. 20,000, where source need not be declared, to launder or hoard black money (hoarding black money also helps in making expenses below the table). Since cash withdrawals have been controlled by RBI (at the behest of Modi government), in the U.P. elections, the BJP is expected to have an advantage. Due to insider knowledge, ruling party and their friends, would have had enough time ahead of November 8, 2016 to park cash properly. Bank deposits in September and October 2016 had spiked like never before! Will these be investigated?

It would seem very unlikely that Congress would not have dug up evidence of insider machinations of the Demonetizing project engineers. After all this is not a small size project. If one party chooses not to expose another party, it can only be due to a quid pro quo.

What will Modi Government do with the surge in bank deposits? The politically smart idea of demonetization, of impairing the financial muscle of opponents, could boomerang soon with cash starved people getting restless in North India. Modi government needs to recapitalise banks due to mounting NPAs. Also the ruling party bosses may want to make good their promise to masses to recover back black money and gift the poor people some (or part of the Rs.15 lacs promised to each). BJP strategists may also favour meeting many other political demands prior to elections (Niti Ayog team talks of big data but the cash distribution to 1.25 bank branches, 1.5 lac ATMs and 1.6 lac Post-offices is hardly being informed and guided by a coherent policy). Meanwhile, Congress has preempted one populist gimmick of loan waiver to farmers. One needs to wait and see what BJP decides to do with (temporarily) bloated bank deposits.

India's freedom from black money and corruption will not come from demonetization. It may not even come from converting cash dominated economy to digital transactions dominated economy, although that is a great opportunity and it must not be foregone due to lack of energy or ham handed execution. Freedom from corruption will not come without reforms in political funding rules and utterly unrealistic caps on election expenses that force out honest and meritorious aspirants and reward candidates who are crooked or who give in to crooked practises :(
 



Saturday, September 19, 2015

Does India value contracts or they are not important?



They say that in India we don’t honour contracts. We seem to neither value the importance of contracts nor do we have a system to enforce the contracts – one could also argue that because contracts can’t be enforced, we don’t value them.

This Op Ed in today’s ET mentions how the “government’s actions” (here by “government”, I mean the legislature + judiciary) have run afoul of big deals / contracts resulting in a slew of international arbitration cases being filed against INDIA.

Modi and Jaitley team is hardly displaying the calibre or sensitivity to mending India’s image on an aspect which influences FDI decisions and India’s pathetic ranking on the index of ease of doing business. Indian companies and parties, unlike foreign entities, cannot appeal beyond the Supreme Court so they must quietly submit to expropriation of their earnings and assets by mindless claims of taxes and duties, sometimes decades old.


Babus are known to introduce ambiguity and complexity in rules and laws to preserve their rent seeking rights. Is software package a product or a service? Courts in India have given conflicting ruling so most companies (we too) charge both VAT (which is a tax applicable only on goods) and Service tax on it. Today’s paper has a story that Telecom companies face a similar dilemma on Spectrum cross sales (recently Telcos have been allowed to trade excess spectrum so that resource utilisation improves and “call drop” problem is mitigated). 

What is the remedy?

For one, the legislators (and particularly, the members of the drafting committees) should undergo training in top class law Universities – the language in our laws is ambiguous and incomprehensible. Secondly, the politicians are either not qualified or they don’t have any concern for the consequences people suffer due to bad or complex laws. Thirdly we need to introduce a new subject, “Transaction Cost” and this must be taught to all legislators. The transaction cost is incurred by the person(s) being asked to comply with a law and also by the law enforcers – this must be estimated in monetary terms as well as non-monetary terms – like what are the chances the law will induce the concerned people to break the law AND getaway. We have made many laws which have forced “relatively” honest persons to break the law (like 97.5% income tax on the highest slab, during Indira Gandhi’s time).

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

What after RTE (Right to Education) Act? Spreading education and pulling up quality of education

Right to Education Act that enjoins all states in the country to provide free and compulsory education to every child between age 6 and 14 came into effect in 2010. Unfortunately RTE has resulted in education standards to fall reveal surveys and studies done recently. Teachers' salaries have increased quite a bit and the infrastructure has marginally improved due to the emphasis placed in RTE.

Today's TOI editorial on Falling Education Standards -  and another article in TOI of 13th March 2013 (Ref: Study done by Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee, Ford Foundation International professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the director of Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab) talk about the quality issue and what is wrong with the policy and implementation. [For e.g. to honour the policy, we have implemented the rule - Children are not required to pass annual exams, everyone gets promoted until Standard VIII).

Without repeating the problems afflicting the education system, here are few prescriptions.

Small things with big impact:

1) Bring automation and transparency in processes of hiring teachers
2) Employment terms of teachers to change - salary, promotion, transfers and leaves linked to performance and attendance record which must both be monitored through ICT enabled systems
3) Teachers eligibility and performance assessments tests to be created and updated regularly by a central body of experts - of very high repute
4) Minimum infrastructure in schools to include - clean toilets, safe drinking water, ventilated class rooms, black boards, electricity, broadband internet and computers / tablets
5) Teachers' and students' online database - profile, expectations, assessment notes (this should be a central system capable of storing hundreds of millions profiles - this system should be hosted by GOI and not any state - this system should have the capability of administering online surveys - with both open ended and close ended answers) [I can create such a system for less that Rs.100 crores]

Big things with big impact:

1) Remove education from the "Concurrent List or List III" (item no.25. "Education, including technical education, medical education and universities, subject to the provisions of Entries 63, 64, 65 and 66 of List I; vocational and technical training of labour.") and shift it to "Union List or List I - this means the education standards - PRIMARY as well as higher education, syllabus, courseware; budgetary support to educational and training schools, colleges and institutes will become Central Govt responsibility
2) Develop and update regularly the syllabus, courseware, teaching notes and aids through a central organisation that would employ experts of very high repute - these people would be world class experts and they would have the right to form special task groups comprising experts from anywhere in the world [the work of this body of experts will have the greatest influence on the quality of education in the country, therefore, no costs should be spared to get the best talent to contribute]
3) Schools and colleges should be made to buy the courseware and teaching aids from the central organisation - there can be different "levels" for the same class or qualification, depending upon the capacity of the school or college to procure - there can be additional support at a cost for adaptation and modifications by the central experts; Govt. can decide to reimburse schools and institutes for such expenses depending upon affirmative action priorities (for e.g. schools admitting poor students would get proportionately higher reimbursements from the Central Govt.)
4) Highly automated system for teacher's recruitment and appraisal could be designed and offered by the Central Organisation to all schools and colleges & institutes in the country - "National Teachers & Faculty Exchange" could support all requisitions for teachers and faculty from anywhere in the country
5) All students' profiles, expectations could be managed in a central database through a "National Students Exchange"
6) Any work provider could submit work opportunity details to the "National Students Exchange" and find the best candidates for interviewing and further assessments